PAGASA sees possible ‘back-to-back’ La Niña

Marje Pelayo   •   November 30, 2020   •   299

MANILA, Philippines — The country has faced some of the strongest typhoons in history this year.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), this can also be associated with the prevailing episode of La Niña phenomenon, a weather condition where above normal rains are experienced in the country.

The onset of  La Niña in the country started since mid of this year but the state weather agency announced it is likely to extend until next year.

If this happens, PAGASA said, the country will likely experience a ‘back-to-back’  La Niña where the phenomenon prevails for two consecutive years.

“Most models show further strengthening ng  La Niña in November, December, January, and will likely to continue through March, April, and May 2021,” said Anna Solis, PAGASA’s chief of Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section.

“So kung ito ang ipa-follow natin, during the past 15 years baka magkaroon ng ‘back-to-back’  La Niña,” Solis said.

Based on PAGASA’s data, six episodes of ‘back-to-back’  La Niña have been recorded in the country since 2017, the worst one was in 2010 to 2011. MNP (with reports from Rey Pelayo)

New LPA spotted east of Southern Luzon — PAGASA

Marje Pelayo   •   January 20, 2021

MANILA, Philippines — The low pressure area (LPA) northeast of Romblon, dissipated at 8:00 AM on Wednesday (January 20), the state weather bureau PAGASA reported.

However, another LPA was seen to have developed east of Southern Luzon at 8:00 AM and at 10:00 AM today, specifically located 250 km East of Virac, Catanduanes. 

PAGASA said the LPA is less likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the tail-end of a frontal system is affecting the eastern section of Central Luzon. 

In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the LPA and tail-end of a frontal system will bring moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains over Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, and the eastern portion of Cagayan. 

Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, CALABARZON, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Camarines Norte, and the rest of Cagayan Valley. 

This weather condition may cause flooding including flashfloods and rain-induced landslides during heavy or prolonged periods of rainfall, especially in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.

Localities that received significant amounts of rainfall during the past couple of days or weeks also face similar hazards. 

Meanwhile, adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. 

Residents in the area are advised to take precautionary measures and monitor further updates about the weather disturbance from PAGASA.

Meanwhile, cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will prevail over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon also due to the effects of the LPA and the Tail-end of the Frontal System.

Similar weather conditions will be experienced in Central and Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and Caraga due to the LPA while the rest of the country will have partly  cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers due to localized thunderstorms.

LPA south of Zamboanga del Sur less likely to develop into tropical depression — PAGASA

Marje Pelayo   •   January 13, 2021

MANILA, Philippines — A low pressure area (LPA) located South of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Sur is less likely to develop into a tropical depression, according to PAGASA.

In its latest advisory, the state weather bureau said the effects of the tail-end of frontal system (shear line) will be affecting the Visayas region, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Sorsogon, and Masbate.

Residents in the said areas will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms that may trigger flash floods due to moderate to heavy rains.

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon is currently prevailing in most parts of Luzon including Cagayan Valley, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Aurora, Quezon, and rest of Bicol Region. 

Cloudy skies with light rains will prevail in these areas.

Similar weather system prevails in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon which may bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains throughout the day.

Meanwhile, the Davao Region and SOCCSKSARGEN will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers due to the effects of localized thunderstorms.

Residents are advised to brace for potential flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms.

2 LPAs to bring moderate to heavy rains, floods over some parts of Luzon

Marje Pelayo   •   December 28, 2020

MANILA, Philippines — Two low pressure areas (LPA) are expected to bring rains and potential floods over several areas in the country, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

As of 4:00 AM Monday (December 28), the first LPA was located 90 km East of Baler, Aurora while the other LPA was estimated based on all available data at 235 km Northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.

Likewise, the tail – end of a frontal system is now affecting extreme Northern Luzon.

The combined effects of the LPA and the frontal system will bring cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms over Cagayan Valley and Aurora provinces.

Meanwhile, the trough of LPA is expected to bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms over the areas of Quezon and the rest of Northern Luzon.

Over Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Caraga and Davao Region, the easterlies will bring cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. 

Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers due to localized thunderstorms.

The state weather agency and disaster management authorities warn residents in the areas mentioned of possible flash floods or landslides due to light to moderate with at times heavy rains.

PAGASA advised to monitor further updates through their website for developments of the weather systems.

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