LPA likely to develop into tropical depression within 48 hours

Marje Pelayo   •   July 14, 2019   •   1541

Satellite image as of July 14, 2019, 1:50 pm. Image from PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) is forecast to develop into a tropical depression within 48 hours.

According to state weather bureau PAGASA’s weather advisory on Sunday (July 14), the LPA was estimated at 1,205 kilometers east of Visayas outside PAR.

The LPA, according to PAGASA, is expected to enter PAR on Sunday evening or Monday morning (July 15).

Once it develops into a tropical depression, it would be named “Falcon,” the country’s 6th tropical cyclone this year.

According to PAGASA weather forecaster Chris Perez, the potential tropical cyclone may influence the southwest monsoon or ‘habagat’ which will bring rains over parts of Luzon and Visayas in the coming days.

Meanwhile, cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and scattered thunderstorms will still prevail over eastern Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and concerned agencies are advised to continue monitoring for updates from PAGASA.

‘Surigae’ may intensify into severe tropical storm within the next 24 hours

Marje Pelayo   •   April 14, 2021

MANILA, Philippines – The tropical storm east of Mindanao (international name “Surigae”) has slightly intensified while almost stationary, according to the latest data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

Based on PAGASA’s forecast track, the weather system is expected to move generally north-northwestward or northward while slightly slowing down though tomorrow morning (15 April).

It is seen to turn west-northwestward and gradually accelerate prior to its expected entrance to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday (16 April).

PAGASA added that “Surigae” may intensify into a severe tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

It is forecast to continuously intensify throughout the forecast period and may reach typhoon category by Friday.

Once inside PAR, the weather system will be named “Bising,” the second tropical cyclone in the Philippines this year.

“Surigae” remains less likely to directly affect the country over the next three days though PAGASA advises the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices to continuously monitor for updates on this tropical cyclone through the agency’s official website.

PAGASA monitors tropical depression east of Mindanao

Marje Pelayo   •   April 13, 2021

MANILA, Philippines – The tropical depression east of Mindanao has slightly accelerated while maintaining its strength according to the latest monitoring of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

On Tuesday, April 13, the weather system was located at 1,475 km east of Mindanao, still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

On the forecast track, the tropical depression is seen to move northward or northwestward until Wednesday, April 14, before slowing down to almost stationary status.

Afterwards, it is forecast to accelerate west-northwestward and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday or Saturday.

Once inside PAR, it will be named “Bising” as the second tropical cyclone to enter the Philippines this year.

This tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

Auring weakens into tropical depression

Maris Federez   •   February 22, 2021

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has lowered the category of Auring into a Tropical Depression as it is forecast to continue moving generally northwestward in the next 24 hours, according to the weather bureau’s 11:00 pm update.

On the forecast track and its probability cone, the tropical depression may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area in the next 6 to 12 hours.

The state weather center said there is an increasing likelihood that Auring will further weaken before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.

Post-landfall, Auring is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 24 hours, possibly sooner.

As of 10:00 pm on Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression Auring was estimated based on all available data at 210 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte (09.9 °N, 127.4 °E ), and is moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is hoisted over the following areas.


  • Sorsogon
  • Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
  • Albay
  • Catanduanes
  • Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)


  • Northern Samar
  • Eastern Samar
  • Samar
  • Biliran
  • Leyte
  • Southern Leyte
  • Bohol
  • Cebu
  • Siquijor
  • Negros Oriental (Dumaguete City, Sibulan, San Jose, Amlan, Pamplona, Tanjay City, Bais City, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Guihulngan City, Canlaon City, Vallehermoso)
  • Negros Occidental (Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, La Castellana, La Carlota City, Bago City, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, San Enrique, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Murcia, San Carlos City, Bacolod City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso)
  • Iloilo (Dumangas, Barotac Nuevo, Anilao, San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Banate, Passi City, San Enrique, Dingle, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
  • Capiz (Cuartero, Dumarao, Ma-Ayon, Pontevedra, Panay, President Roxas, Panitan, Dao, Pilar)


  • Dinagat Islands
  • Surigao del Norte
  • Surigao del Sur (Lianga, Barobo, San Agustin, Marihatag, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, San Miguel, Tandag City, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal)
  • Agusan del Norte
  • Agusan del Sur (Bayugan City, Prosperidad, Sibagat)
  • Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Claveria, Balingasag, Lagonglong, Balingoan, Kinoguitan, Sugbongcogon, Binuangan, Salay)
  • Camiguin

The state weather center also said that in the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon and Auring will bring strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where TCWS #1 is in effect, as well as over the southern portion of Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.

PAGASA advisory added that rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS #1 (2.5 to 4.0 m), the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon not under any TCWS (2.5 to 3.5 m), the southern seaboard of Luzon and the remaining seaboards of Visayas (2.5 to 3.0 m). Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.


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