The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has lowered the category of Auring into a Tropical Depression as it is forecast to continue moving generally northwestward in the next 24 hours, according to the weather bureau’s 11:00 pm update.
On the forecast track and its probability cone, the tropical depression may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area in the next 6 to 12 hours.
The state weather center said there is an increasing likelihood that Auring will further weaken before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.
Post-landfall, Auring is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 24 hours, possibly sooner.
As of 10:00 pm on Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression Auring was estimated based on all available data at 210 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte (09.9 °N, 127.4 °E ), and is moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is hoisted over the following areas.
- Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
- Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
- Northern Samar
- Eastern Samar
- Southern Leyte
- Negros Oriental (Dumaguete City, Sibulan, San Jose, Amlan, Pamplona, Tanjay City, Bais City, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Guihulngan City, Canlaon City, Vallehermoso)
- Negros Occidental (Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, La Castellana, La Carlota City, Bago City, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, San Enrique, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Murcia, San Carlos City, Bacolod City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso)
- Iloilo (Dumangas, Barotac Nuevo, Anilao, San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Banate, Passi City, San Enrique, Dingle, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
- Capiz (Cuartero, Dumarao, Ma-Ayon, Pontevedra, Panay, President Roxas, Panitan, Dao, Pilar)
- Dinagat Islands
- Surigao del Norte
- Surigao del Sur (Lianga, Barobo, San Agustin, Marihatag, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, San Miguel, Tandag City, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal)
- Agusan del Norte
- Agusan del Sur (Bayugan City, Prosperidad, Sibagat)
- Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Claveria, Balingasag, Lagonglong, Balingoan, Kinoguitan, Sugbongcogon, Binuangan, Salay)
The state weather center also said that in the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon and Auring will bring strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where TCWS #1 is in effect, as well as over the southern portion of Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.
PAGASA advisory added that rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS #1 (2.5 to 4.0 m), the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon not under any TCWS (2.5 to 3.5 m), the southern seaboard of Luzon and the remaining seaboards of Visayas (2.5 to 3.0 m). Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.